Wheat Futures Decline Amid Mixed USDA Data

Wheat futures saw declines based on USDA's mixed data. Crop progress shows significant planting rates and yields ahead of averages, but the market reacted negatively, impacting investor outlook.

Date: 13-05-2025

AI Rating: 6

Market Response
Wheat futures fell across multiple exchanges due to less-than-optimistic USDA data, reflecting uncertainties in the current market. Chicago SRW futures lost 6-7 cents, and Kansas City HRW futures faced losses of 9-10 cents. The USDA's report detailing crop progress showed spring wheat planting at 66%, ahead of the average of 59%. Similarly, winter wheat conditions improved to 54% good/excellent, indicating a healthy crop outlook.

Production Figures
The Wheat production report indicated an output of 1.921 billion bushels, which is above trade estimates. The carryover stocks for the old crop are now at 841 million bushels (mbu), down by 5 mbu month-over-month. These carryover stocks and the new crop estimate of 923 mbu reflect ample supply in the market and may exert downward pressure on prices.

Market Dynamics
However, USDA reported a decrease of 1.61% in wheat exports compared to the previous week, which could signal a dwindling demand that might concern investors. Nevertheless, exports were up 14.79% compared to the same week one year prior, indicating potentially expanding international markets, particularly with strong figures coming from the Philippines and Mexico.

With the significant planting and favorable conditions, the current outlook hints at stability in wheat supply, although market reactions suggest that investor sentiment may still be cautious. The mixed signals from USDA could lead to volatility in wheat futures, impacting agricultural investment strategies.

Stocks: