PayPal Faces Stock Decline Despite Strong Financial Metrics

PayPal stock has seen a drop despite beating revenue and adjusted EPS expectations in its latest earnings. Investors are divided on whether this represents a buying opportunity or a sign of further declines. Analysts are mixed post-earnings, with a potential upside ahead.

Date: 15-02-2025

AI Rating: 6

**Earnings Overview**
PayPal reported a revenue growth of 4% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, amounting to nearly $8.4 billion, which was about 1% higher than analyst expectations. Additionally, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19 exceeded forecasts by 6%. The strong performance in these areas indicates that while the stock has faced significant sell-offs, the financials suggest underlying strength.

**Free Cash Flow Generation**
Another critical point in the report is PayPal’s anticipated strong free cash flow generation of $6.5 billion in 2025. With a forward price to free cash flow ratio of just under 12x, PayPal's valuation appears attractive compared to competitors. This high free cash flow generation is crucial as it provides the company with financial flexibility to pursue growth strategies or return capital to shareholders.

**Profitability vs. Growth Concerns**
Despite these positive metrics, there are concerns regarding growth, particularly in branded checkout payment volume, which grew at only 6%, falling short of expectations. The decline in growth from Braintree, from 29% down to just 2%, also raises concerns about competitive positioning, even as profitability improves. PayPal’s strategy of focusing on profitability may alienate some investors who prioritize immediate growth.

**Market Reactions and Future Outlook**
The conflicting signals from PayPal's performance metrics have led to divided opinions among analysts. Some have raised price targets post-earnings, while others have lowered them, indicating uncertainty in future growth potential. However, the average price target reflects a 27% upside, suggesting there is an opportunity for gains based on fundamentals if PayPal can stabilize its market position. Additionally, the upcoming Investor Day could further elucidate PayPal's long-term strategy and initiatives, potentially improving investor confidence.

Stocks: PYPL