Occidental Petroleum Faces Mixed Fortunes Amid Debt Management

Occidental Petroleum has seen a decline in stock as oil prices weaken. However, the company is positively addressing its debt and investing in non-oil ventures, presenting potential growth catalysts.

Date: 27-03-2025

AI Rating: 6

Stock Performance and Oil Price Impact
Occidental Petroleum's stock has dropped over 20% over the past year, primarily due to weakening oil prices, with WTI falling more than 15% to just under $70 per barrel. Oil price fluctuations can significantly affect Occidental's cash flows.

Debt Situation and Free Cash Flow
The company made a notable $12 billion acquisition of CrownRock, which brought in higher-margin oil production and has an estimated boost in free cash flow of $1 billion in its first year, assuming WTI averages $70 a barrel. However, the $1.2 billion of debt assumed as part of the acquisition poses a risk if oil prices remain low.

Despite this concern, Occidental has demonstrated a strong commitment to debt repayment, achieving its goal to cut $4.5 billion in debt seven months ahead of schedule. This proactive approach to deleveraging suggests a management focus on improving financial health and could help enhance shareholder value moving forward. The company is using savings from reduced interest expenses to support dividend increases, having raised its dividend by 9% this year.

Growth Strategies and Future Prospects
In parallel with addressing its debt, Occidental is heavily investing in expanding both oil and non-oil operations. The company allocated $5.3 billion on oil and gas capital projects last year, with plans to invest another $5.8 billion to $6 billion this year. Additionally, the expansion of OxyChem and the development of lower-carbon energy platforms are key strategic initiatives aimed at sustaining long-term growth. The expansion is expected to result in substantial returns, with estimates suggesting that OxyChem-related projects could add $325 million of annualized EBITDA starting in 2026.

Moreover, Occidental's entry into carbon capture projects, such as their initiative with BlackRock, could open new revenue streams via carbon credits, given the potential size of the CCS market.

Conclusion
While short-term prospects may be influenced by volatile oil prices, Occidental Petroleum's efforts in debt management and diversification into non-oil ventures suggest that there are significant long-term value generators. This combined strategy positions the company as a potential buy for investors looking for growth, particularly when its stock is priced lower.

Stocks: OXY