S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts Suggest Slower Growth Ahead

S&P 500 Q1 earnings expected to rise 5.9% YoY, revenue up 3.9%. Recent downward revision trends signal concerns for the tech sector and major players like Tesla and Apple. Analysts anticipate a tempered outlook for the upcoming earnings season.

Date: 04-04-2025

AI Rating: 5

Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Revenue Growth

According to the report, total earnings for the S&P 500 index are projected to increase by +5.9% in Q1 2025, following a strong earnings growth of +14.1% in the prior period. While revenue is expected to grow by +3.9%, this marks a decline from earlier estimates of +10.4%. This downward revision indicates a potential cooling of corporate earnings momentum, which could affect investor sentiment and stock prices negatively.

Sector Performance and Profit Margins

The tech sector continues to be a significant growth driver, but the report highlights that earnings estimates for tech have come under pressure since January. The earnings expectations for the Magnificent 7 group (including major tech players like Meta, Tesla, and Apple) indicate mixed performance, with expected earnings growth slowing significantly from the previous year. This trend, especially in sectors with high capital expenditure, could weigh on profit margins and future growth prospects.

Concerns on Major Players

The robust projection for S&P 500 earnings could be overshadowed by challenges faced by individual companies, specifically Tesla and Apple, given their substantial exposure to China and political unrest, as mentioned in the analysis. The combination of slowing growth expectations and rising operational costs among these companies may lead to lower stock valuations in the short term.

Overall Market Sentiment

The increasing number of sectors experiencing downward revisions in earnings estimates (14 out of 16) reflects a potentially cautious market outlook. If estimates continue to decline, it could lead to increased volatility as investors reassess risk, ultimately impacting stock prices negatively.

Stocks: MSFT NVDA TSLA GOOGL META