Moderna Shares Plummet Amid Declining Sales Forecasts

Moderna's stock faces a steep drop of 58% in 2024, driven by weak COVID-19 vaccine sales and lowered revenue projections. Investors should assess the company's robust pipeline for potential recovery despite immediate challenges.

Date: 19-01-2025

AI Rating: 4

Overview of Moderna's Performance

Moderna's share price has significantly decreased by 58% in 2024, indicating serious concerns among investors regarding its future profitability. The decline is primarily attributed to a sharp drop in sales of the COVID-19 vaccine and a lack of market traction for its new RSV vaccine. Furthermore, the company has revised its 2025 revenue forecast downward from a previous estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, now anticipating a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion.

Revenue and Earnings Analysis

There are critical details to note regarding Moderna's revenue outlook:

2023: $6.85 billion
2024 (estimated): $3.0 billion to $3.1 billion
2025 (estimated): $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion

The revenue percentage change year over year is also alarming:

2023: 40.6% drop
2024 (estimated): 55% to 56% drop
2025 (estimated): 18% to 51% drop

This projected revenue decrease is coupled with a year-to-date per-share earnings loss of $6.37, showing an improvement from the previous year's loss of $12.89 per share, but it still indicates significant ongoing losses.

Future Prospects

Despite the current setbacks, Moderna's pipeline involves promising projects that could revitalize its standing. The company's focus in 2025 includes advancing its RSV vaccine and obtaining FDA approval for a combination influenza-COVID-19 vaccine. If materialized, these products could enhance its revenue streams.

Moreover, with a cash position of $9.2 billion against a market cap of $13.1 billion, Moderna has the financial resources to support its developmental efforts. However, Wall Street analysts predict an ongoing lack of profitability for the foreseeable future, which could further impact investor confidence.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while Moderna presents intriguing opportunities in its clinical pipeline, the immediate negative performance metrics, especially related to falling sales and reduced revenue forecasts, paint a dire picture for the stock. Caution is advised for potential investors.

Stocks: MRNA