Celsius Stock: Growth Slows, Market Share Gains Uncertain

Celsius Holdings faces challenges as growth cools and market competition rises. The company's stock has declined significantly from its peak, sparking investor concerns about future performance.

Date: 06-02-2025

AI Rating: 5

Celsius' Stock Performance and Current Challenges Celsius has seen a remarkable rise in its stock price, reaching an all-time high, but it has since experienced a steep decline of nearly 75%. While rapid growth, distribution partnerships, and international expansion initially attracted investors, recent performance indicators suggest that maintaining its gains may be challenging.

Revenue Growth
From 2017 to 2023, Celsius' revenue displayed remarkable growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82% from $36 million to $1.32 billion. However, in 2024, analysts project only a 3% rise in revenue due to inventory issues and competitive pressures. This slowing of growth could significantly affect investor sentiment.

Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Celsius has improved its gross margin from 46.6% in 2020 to 50.2% in 9M 2024, which is a strong indicator of its efficiency and profitability. The adjusted EBITDA margin has also shown a positive trend, moving from 12.2% in 2020 to a substantial 18.8% in 9M 2024. This improvement in margins could support future profitability despite slowing sales growth.

Future Outlook
The company has plans for growth, including international expansion and partnerships with major retailers, which could stabilize its revenue trajectory. Analysts anticipate that revenue and adjusted EBITDA will grow by 15% and 40% in 2025, respectively, suggesting that while growth has slowed, there is potential for recovery. However, this cautious optimism is tempered by the realities of increased competition and reduced inventory from PepsiCo, which could continue to affect stock performance negatively in the short term.

Stocks: CELH PEP MNST