Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns and Demand Warnings

Cocoa prices show a slight increase as supply concerns linger. Investors should note that rising cocoa prices and demand warnings from major chocolate companies could affect stock prices in related sectors.

Date: 28-02-2025

AI Rating: 5

Supply Issues and Price Impact
Recent reports indicate that cocoa prices have increased slightly due to ongoing supply concerns. This comes after a significant drop to 3-1/4 month lows attributed to worries over cocoa demand and unfavorable weather conditions in key producing regions.

Nonetheless, a rise in Nigeria's cocoa exports by 27% year-on-year to 46,970 MT adds a complex layer to the supply picture, potentially stabilizing prices. However, forecast reductions in Ghana's cocoa production and limited global cocoa inventories are supportive factors driving prices higher.

Demand Slowdown Alerts
Reports from major chocolate producers like Hershey and Mondelez have raised alarms about the impact of high cocoa prices on chocolate demand. Both companies have acknowledged that elevated cocoa costs are leading to changes in product formulations and potential price increases of up to 50% for chocolate, which could limit consumption.

Despite these supply constraints, quarterly grinding reports are revealing a concerning decline in cocoa demand, with significant drops noted in European (down 5.3% year-on-year) and Asian (down 0.5% year-on-year) cocoa grindings. Furthermore, North American cocoa grindings saw a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year.

Global Cocoa Deficit
The International Cocoa Association has also projected an increasing global cocoa deficit for the 2023/24 period, estimating a staggering deficit of 478,000 MT—the largest in over 60 years. This could indicate long-term upward pressure on cocoa prices, which may benefit investors in the short term but also reflect underlying demand issues that could affect related stocks negatively.

Conclusion
Given the previously mentioned factors, investors need to be vigilant about the interplay between supply concerns, price fluctuations, and the changing landscape of demand from major chocolate manufacturers.

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