Tesla Moves to Launch Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in CA

Tesla takes a major step towards autonomous ride-hailing with a California regulatory filing. Despite YTD struggles, growth in energy storage and ambitious production goals signal potential recovery for investors.

Date: 01-03-2025

AI Rating: 5

Company Performance and Market Position
Tesla (TSLA) has made significant advancements with its recent regulatory filing for a transportation permit in California. This move marks a promising step in launching its autonomous ride-hailing service, aiming to compete with established players like Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.

YTD Performance
Year to date, TSLA shares have fallen by 11.9%, underperforming both the S&P 500's decline of 0.7% and the Auto, Tires and Trucks sector. In contrast, competitors such as Uber and Lyft have experienced gains of 31.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Additionally, Alphabet's GOOGL shares have seen a slight decline of 2.2% YTD. This performance highlights significant competitive pressure faced by Tesla.

EPS Estimates and Revenue Growth
Despite the competitive challenges, Tesla anticipates an increase in revenue with the Zacks Consensus Estimate pegging Q1 2025 revenues at $24.15 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.39%. Furthermore, the full-year 2025 revenue estimate stands at $111.07 billion, implying a growth rate of 13.7% over the previous year. However, it's crucial to note that Tesla's EPS estimates are declining, with the consensus for Q1 2025 being $0.59 (down 19.2% over 30 days) but still reflecting a healthy year-over-year growth rate of 31.11%.

Market Sentiments
Moreover, the company has been grappling with production issues while managing the CEO's diverse commitments. The uncertainty surrounding Musk's focus could spur investor anxieties affecting stock performance. Nevertheless, TSLA's energy storage segment has emerged as a strong growth driver, with expected deployments increasing by 50% year over year, bolstering revenue growth. Additionally, advancements in vehicle autonomy and an ambitious production target of 3 million vehicles by 2025 indicate strong future potential.

While the trajectory appears promising with potential growth in revenues and strategic moves, the current EPS estimates and market performance suggest a cautious approach from investors who may want to wait for clearer signals before increasing their positions in TSLA stock.

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