Novo Nordisk Faces Pressure from Eli Lilly and Downgraded Targets

Novo Nordisk's stock dipped over 2% following Morgan Stanley's downgrade. The analysis reveals serious competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which is capturing a large share of the weight-loss prescription market, prompting concerns about future earnings guidance.

Date: 28-03-2025

AI Rating: 5

Impact of Downgrade
In the latest analysis regarding Novo Nordisk, the company's stock has declined over 2% as Morgan Stanley lowered its price target from 700 Danish kroner ($101.11) to 600 kroner ($86.67), maintaining a hold rating. This shift indicates a marketplace concern surrounding the company's performance and expectations.

Competitive Landscape
The report highlights that Novo Nordisk's popular weight-loss drug, Wegovy, is significantly lagging behind Eli Lilly's Zepbound in prescription numbers. Eli Lilly’s product holds a commanding 59% share in overall weekly prescriptions while Novo Nordisk captures only 41%. Particularly alarming is that for starting doses, Eli Lilly has a significant lead at 68% versus 32%, suggesting that not only are they gaining market traction but Novo Nordisk is potentially losing existing customers. This competitive disadvantage as noted by Morgan Stanley poses a considerable risk to Novo Nordisk's revenue growth and future market share.

Future Guidance
With these conditions in place, there is an expectation that Novo Nordisk may revise downward its full-year 2025 guidance as early as its upcoming first-quarter earnings release. This projection can impact expectations around the company's revenue growth and earnings per share (EPS). Investors are likely to be cautious in response, possibly leading to further stock price pressure in the short term.

Conclusion
As competitors ramp up their offerings in obesity treatment, Novo Nordisk faces an uphill battle to preserve its market position. Investors should monitor the company's upcoming earnings for signs of revised guidance and how it may cope with the competitive threats from Eli Lilly and other competitors in the sector.

Stocks: NVO LLY