ASML Sees 169% Surge in Orders; Stock Gains Expected

ASML's fourth-quarter earnings showed a 169% increase in orders, signaling strong demand for semiconductor devices. This surge could positively impact ASML's stock price, making it a potentially attractive investment at this time.

Date: 04-02-2025

AI Rating: 7

Order Surge and Future Growth Prospects
ASML Holding has experienced a remarkable jump in orders, achieving bookings of 7.1 billion euros ($7.4 billion), which marks a 169% increase compared to the previous quarter. This performance has significantly exceeded analysts' expectations, who had anticipated bookings of approximately 4 billion euros ($4.2 billion). With orders primarily driven by the demand for EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) equipment, the surge reflects renewed optimism in ASML’s market position within the semiconductor space.

The company has also projected future revenue growth. ASML expects to generate revenue between 30 billion to 35 billion euros ($31.1 billion to $36.3 billion) for the year 2025, with guidance for Q1 set at 7.5 billion to 8 billion euros ($7.8 billion to $8.3 billion). These expectations, particularly if AI chip demand remains strong, suggest a possible favorable outcome near the upper end of this forecast.

Gross Margins and Competitive Positioning
For 2025, ASML anticipates gross margins between 51% to 53% for the year, with expectations of 52% to 53% for the first quarter. This solid gross margin outlook, despite the competitive landscape, indicates that ASML retains a strong pricing power vital for maintaining profitability.

ASML also highlighted a longer-term potential, estimating 2030 revenue could range from 44 billion to 60 billion euros ($45.7 billion to $62.3 billion) with improved gross margins. This long-term perspective is significantly influenced by increasing overall chip and AI-based demands.

Impact of Geopolitical Factors
However, ASML acknowledges geopolitical challenges that may influence future revenue, particularly concerning its Chinese business, which has exhibited fluctuating contributions in recent years. The expected decline to more normalized levels in 2025, as compared to previous years driven by trade concerns, could impact revenue growth if trade restrictions persist.

Overall, recent earnings reflect a robust demand trajectory for ASML, with substantial order growth, high expectations for future revenue, and attractive margins providing a positive outlook.

Stocks: ASML