Alaska Air Group's Mixed Earnings Outlook May Impact Stocks

Alaska Air Group's recent report reveals a projected drop in EPS and mixed revenue growth, which could influence investor sentiment. Despite recent stock performance exceeding sector averages, upcoming earnings may present challenges.

Date: 11-09-2024

AI Rating: 5

Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed at $39.80 with no change from the previous session but showed a more substantial 15.06% increase over the past month, outperforming both the Transportation sector and the S&P 500. Investors are closely monitoring the company's upcoming earnings report, which is projected to show an EPS of $1.55, down 15.3% from last year, indicating potential concerns regarding profitability.

The consensus estimate anticipates revenue of $2.94 billion, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the prior year. This positive revenue growth, however, seems overshadowed by the significant dip in EPS, which may lead to cautious sentiment among investors.
For the annual period, EPS is estimated at $4.06 (a decline of 10.38%), but revenue is expected to reach $10.73 billion, up 2.92%. The disparity between the EPS decline and the revenue increase paints a mixed picture of the company's earnings potential.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate shows a 0.28% drop in the EPS projection within the last 30 days, a signal that analysts are possibly reassessing their outlook on the company's near-term performance. Alaska Air Group currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which reflects moderate sentiment in the market.

In terms of valuation, Alaska is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 9.8, which is slightly higher than the industry's average of 9.75. A notable PEG ratio of 0.74 suggests that the stock may be undervalued concerning its growth rate when compared to the industry's PEG of 0.96.

Given the Transportation - Airline industry's Zacks Rank of 204, placing it in the bottom 20%, investors should be cautious as the weaker industry outlook can affect individual stock performance. Overall, Alaska Air Group's mixed performance indicators, particularly the decline in EPS alongside positive revenue expectations, may lead to fluctuations in stock performance as investors digest the upcoming earnings report.

Stocks: ALK