Indian Shares Set for Lower Open Amid Trade Tariff Concerns

Indian shares are poised for a slight dip as tariff tensions overshadow expectations of future policy easing by the Reserve Bank of India. Investors remain cautious amid Nvidia's significant quarterly charge for exports to China.

Date: 16-04-2025

AI Rating: 6

**Market Overview**: The report outlines a potential dip in Indian shares influenced by tariff concerns and expectations for monetary policy adjustments in India. Nvidia's announcement of a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to exports highlights ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which could adversely affect market sentiment.

**Economic Indicators**: On a more positive note, India's consumer price inflation fell to 3.34% in March, which is below expectations and represents a significant easing. This could suggest a favorable environment for future rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), potentially benefiting borrowing and investments, hence positively impacting the market in the medium term. Similarly, the wholesale price index (WPI) decrease to 2.05% further supports the narrative of easing inflationary pressures at the wholesale level.

The Indian rupee's minor gain also reflects some strength against the dollar, likely buoyed by these economic indicators and a weak dollar environment. However, the report emphasizes that industrial and retail dynamics in China, alongside the U.S.-China tariff situation, may introduce volatility into the market.

Notably, fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, despite better-than-expected earnings from major banks like Bank of America and Citigroup, indicate a cautious investor outlook amidst broader global economic uncertainties, particularly relating to tariffs. The negative impact of the trade disputes and geopolitical tensions has led to a bearish sentiment in the U.S. market as well.

Overall, the hovering tariff concerns paired with encouraging inflation-related data from India suggest a mixed outlook. While short-term forecasts might lean towards caution, positive inflation trends could lead to investor optimism regarding potential RBI policy changes.

Stocks: NVDA AAPL C BAC BA