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Wheat Futures Decline Amid Mixed Export Data

Wheat markets closed lower as SRW and HRW futures recorded losses. Positive export data did not offset the fall, suggesting potential volatility in grain prices moving forward. Analyst expectations for upcoming USDA reports may also add to market dynamics.

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AI Rating:   5
Market Overview
The wheat complex exhibited weakness into the Thursday close, as Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW futures marked declines of 5 and about 4 to 5 cents respectively. Minneapolis spring wheat futures only saw slight decreases between 2 to 3 cents. The backdrop is set by the weekly Export Sales report, which indicated that 69,659 MT of wheat were sold in the week ending May 1. Notably, purchases from Mexico accounted for a significant 37,300 MT, while new crop sales marked a high of 492,978 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year, more than doubling the previous week's sales.

Export Sales Insights
The details from the report concerning unknown destinations, which purchased a total of 183,500 MT (including 100,800 MT sold to South Korea), showcase a healthy international demand for U.S. wheat. This could potentially cushion the overall pricing amidst domestic futures declines. However, the observed sell-off in futures may point to market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics, particularly leading up to the USDA's forthcoming WASDE report, which will provide crucial updates on the 2025/26 balance sheets. Analysts anticipate a slight rise in both old and new crop estimates.

Pressure on Prices
The recent data from Statistics Canada showed wheat stocks at the end of March totaling 15.421 MMT, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous year. While this figure reflects tightening supply, the ongoing weakness in futures suggests market participants may be cautious about price recovery in the near term. Therefore, while export demand has shown strength, the bearish sentiment in futures indicates potential volatility.

Conclusion
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