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Steel Dynamics Forecasts Strong Q1 2025 Earnings Guidance

Steel Dynamics sets earnings guidance for Q1 2025 at $1.36-$1.40 per share, suggesting a positive outlook despite prior year declines. Increased shipments in steel operations bolster confidence.

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AI Rating:   6

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has provided earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2025 at a range of $1.36 to $1.40 per share. This shows a steady performance when compared to the sequential fourth quarter of 2024, which also reported earnings of $1.36 per share. However, it's worth noting that this guidance reflects a significant decline from the prior year’s first quarter earnings of $3.67 per share, indicating a downturn year-over-year.

Revenue Growth: The report indicates that first quarter profitability from the steel operations is expected to be stronger than in the sequential fourth quarter, driven by increased shipments. This denotes potential revenue growth, even with the pressure from metal margin compression due to lagging contractual steel pricing.

Net Income: While the report does not explicitly state net income figures, the guidance and discussion around earnings suggest a positive outlook that could indicate improved net income, particularly in the context of better shipment volumes.

Profit Margins: The mention of metal margin compression could affect profit margins negatively; however, the expectation of increased shipments and better pricing in the recycling operations might contribute positively, suggesting fluctuating margins across different sectors.

Free Cash Flow (FCF): There are indications of strong cash flow generation capability, as evidenced by the board's decision to increase the dividend and authorize substantial share repurchases. This is a positive signal regarding free cash flow, despite the challenges in certain sectors.

Return on Equity (ROE): The report does not provide specific details on return on equity, but the increase in dividends and share buybacks may imply management's confidence in delivering solid performance, which is often reflected in ROE.