Soybean Prices Decline Amidst Oil Weakness and Tariffs

Soybean prices face pressure as contracts close lower due to oil weakness. The latest USDA report shows increased exports, but China’s tariffs on Canadian ag goods further influence market dynamics.

Date: 11-03-2025

AI Rating: 5

Commodity Performance: Soybean contracts have seen a decline of 7 to 11 cents, closing down at $9.49 1/4. This downward trend can significantly affect the profitability of companies involved in soybean production and trading, potentially leading to lower stock prices in this sector.

Export Data: The USDA reported a private export sale of 195,000 MT of soybeans for 2024/25 and noted a total of 844,218 MT shipped in the week of 3/6. This is reflective of a 20.6% increase from the previous week, suggesting a resilient demand despite recent pressures. The fact that exports are up compared to the same period last year may positively reflect on companies that heavily rely on soybean export for revenue.

Production Estimates: The upcoming USDA WASDE report is expected to maintain the US carryout number at 379 mbu with minimal changes to Argentine and Brazilian production forecasts. Brazil’s soybean crop is reported to be 61% harvested, which is faster than last year, indicating efficiency in production.

Market Implications: With China being a primary destination for 276,437 MT of soybeans shipped, trade relations and tariff policies will likely continue to impact market sentiment and stock prices. Companies with significant exposure to soybean prices could face challenges as tariffs from China on Canadian agriculture goods, excluding canola, put downward pressure on prices.

Given these dynamics, investors should closely monitor the developments in soybean exports and production forecasts in relation to overall global demand and supply shifts.

Stocks: