Soybean Market Shows Mixed Signals Amid Low Export Sales

Soybean prices gained up to 5 cents, but new sales fell short of expectations. The USDA report indicated a 5-week low in sales, sparking investor concern over future soybean stock performance.

Date: 21-03-2025

AI Rating: 5

Soybean Market Performance

The report indicates that the soybean market has shown slight gains, with cash bean prices up 5 1/2 cents to $9.52. However, this positive momentum is countered by disappointing export sales. The USDA report reveals total sales of only 352,580 MT for the week of March 13, significantly below the projected range of 0.4 to 0.9 MMT, marking a 5-week low and a 28.6% drop from the previous year.

China's purchase of 269,900 MT offers a glimmer of hope, but the overall performance raises red flags for investors. New crop sales were a mere 100 MT, aligning poorly against expectations of 0-50,000 MT, further emphasizing the waning demand. The low demand and reduced sales figures could indicate challenges ahead for soybean producers, impacting stock prices negatively.

Price Movements

Despite slight increases in soybean prices, the underlying demand issues could limit upward price potential. Soymeal futures dropped by 60 cents to $1.60/ton, while soy oil futures showed some resilience, increasing by 35 to 39 points.

For soybean meal, sales reached only 182,243 MT, coming in on the lower side of the anticipated range, marking a 3-week low and raising concerns about the demand for this product as well.

Market Outlook

The International Grains Council projects stable world ending stocks at 82 MMT while indicating a slight increase in production for the following year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced a 1 MMT reduction in Argentina's soybean crop, now at 48.6 MMT, although the percentage rated as excellent improved slightly to 29%.

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