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Nucor’s Q1 2025 EPS Guidance Shows Significant Decline

Nucor Corporation (NUE) has issued disappointing Q1 2025 earnings guidance with a projected EPS decline, signaling potential stock price pressure. The company expects diluted EPS to fall significantly compared to prior quarters.

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AI Rating:   4

EPS Analysis: Nucor Corporation’s earnings guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a projected diluted EPS range of $0.45 to $0.55. This guidance reflects a significant decrease from the $1.22 EPS reported in Q4 2024 and an even steeper drop from the $3.46 EPS in Q1 2024. The adjusted EPS, accounting for one-time charges, is expected to be between $0.50 and $0.60. This trend suggests a weakening profitability outlook, which could lead to a negative perception from investors.

Revenue Growth and Profit Margins: The report mentions expectations for stable earnings from steel mills but declining earnings from steel products due to lower selling prices. Furthermore, raw material earnings are expected to see a decrease primarily embedded in lower margins at DRI facilities. These observations signal potential challenges in revenue growth and profit margins moving forward.

Expenses and Shareholder Returns: Nucor anticipates higher corporate, administrative, and tax expenses compared to the previous quarter, which could further exacerbate the decline in net income. On a positive note, the company has been proactive in returning value to shareholders via share buybacks, repurchasing 2.3 million shares at an average price of $133.17, amounting to approximately $428 million returned through buybacks and dividends.

Nucor’s current trading price at $121.14, down 6.46% on the NYSE, reflects the market's reaction to the bearish guidance.