MongoDB Stock Suffers 47% Loss Amid Bad Guidance and Earnings

MongoDB stock fell significantly after disappointing guidance post-earnings. The company exceeded Q4 EPS expectations but issued weak forecasts for fiscal 2026, raising concerns for investors about future revenue growth and AI opportunities.

Date: 26-03-2025

AI Rating: 4

Performance Overview: MongoDB reported an adjusted EPS of $1.28 for fiscal Q4 2025, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.66, indicating strong performance in the last quarter. However, the guidance for EPS growth fell below Wall Street's projections, which may lead to further stock price pressures.

Revenue Growth: Revenue grew by 20% in Q4, exceeding the anticipated 14%. This strong quarterly performance was largely aided by the premature recognition of revenue, particularly from its Enterprise Advanced product, contributing positively to the overall earnings report.

Future Guidance Concerns: Despite the strong Q4 results, MongoDB's stock faced a significant downturn due to disappointing guidance for fiscal 2026, estimating only a 12% revenue growth. This marks a noticeable decline from previous fiscal years, which saw revenue growth rates of 31% and 19%. Analysts were particularly concerned that the drop in growth could indicate a larger trend affecting the company's future.

Impact of AI: The anticipated growth from AI adoption appears muted for MongoDB in fiscal 2026. Management expects that while AI could represent a significant opportunity, its effects will not be immediate or substantial in the coming year. Therefore, this could lead to skepticism from investors regarding MongoDB's ability to leverage AI for growth.

The factors of weak guidance and tepid growth expectations, particularly regarding AI, create a negative outlook for MongoDB. Hence, while current performance metrics show strong beats, the overall sentiment in the market continues to be governed by concerns over future growth and revenue projections.

Stocks: MDB