Live Cattle Futures Surge Amid Mixed Export Data

Live cattle futures experienced gains on Thursday as cash prices strengthened due to increased demand. However, export sales showed a calendar year low, which adds uncertainty to the market. Investors need to weigh bullish futures against subdued export figures.

Date: 09-05-2025

AI Rating: 6

Market Overview: Live cattle futures have shown positive momentum on Thursday, increasing between $1.50 to $2.02. This bullish trend is accompanied by cash market strength, particularly in the South with prices around $218-220, while northern sales are even higher. Feeder cattle futures also saw gains, reflecting overall market optimism.

Export Sales Insights: Despite the positivity in futures, export sales data indicates challenges, with a total of 7,642 MT of beef sold in the week ending May 1, marking a calendar year low. Japan's significant purchase of 6,600 MT remains a bright spot, but the reductions in China, coupled with 5,500 MT net reductions, raises concerns. Overall export shipments have slipped back compared to the previous week, increasing uncertainty for investors.

USDA Insights: The USDA's latest analysis reports higher wholesale boxed beef prices with the Choice and Select box prices both increasing. The Chc/Sel spread indicates competitive pricing in the market, which can support cattle prices in the immediate future. However, slaughter estimates have shown a slight increase week-over-week, yet remain down when compared to last year, suggesting potential supply chain issues.

Investment Considerations: Investors should consider the mixed signals from cattle futures and export sales. While the rising futures prices may indicate a supply-demand imbalance favoring producers in the short term, weak export demand could lead to volatility. Monitoring ongoing slaughter figures and future export trends will be critical for making informed decisions.

Stocks: