Live Cattle Futures Decline Amidst Cooling Demand

Cattle futures experienced significant declines this Thursday, driven by weak cash trade and lower wholesale boxed beef prices. Additionally, export sales reported mixed results, signaling potential market challenges ahead. Investors should reassess their positions.

Date: 11-04-2025

AI Rating: 5

Market Overview: The decline in live cattle futures, ranging from $2.10 to $3.25, suggests a bearish trend influenced by weak cash trade figures and lower wholesale boxed beef prices. The Central Stockyards reported no sales, reflecting a stagnation in market activity. The Federally inspected cattle slaughter is also down compared to the previous year, indicating shrinking supply and demand pressures.

Export Data: While the Export Sales data indicates an increase in beef sold, reaching 11,855 MT in the week ending April 3, this was balanced by a more significant figure of shipments at 15,065 MT. The rise in sales may provide a cautious optimism; however, the short-term outlook appears cloudy due to falling domestic prices.

Boxed Beef Prices: The lowered National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices, particularly the $2.25 drop in Choice boxes and a $3.30 decrease in Select, show diminishing demand and could exert downward pressure on live cattle prices. This indicates concerns of oversupply or insufficient consumer demand, which can further weaken market confidence.

Slaughter Numbers: The current week's slaughter figures at 123,000 head, which is lower than last week and last year's data, suggest potential supply issues that could further complicate market conditions moving forward.

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