Cobalt Prices Surge as DRC Suspending Exports Boosts Market

Cobalt prices rallied sharply, rising by 39% after the DRC announced a four-month export ban. Supply concerns and strong demand from EV sectors may influence market dynamics as manufacturers explore alternatives amid an oversupplied backdrop.

Date: 11-04-2025

AI Rating: 6

Cobalt market dynamics shift sharply: The recent suspension of cobalt exports by the DRC has led to a significant price increase, moving from a nine-year low in February to a two-year high in March. Prices increased from US$24,495 to US$34,040.40, marking a 39% rise attributed to the four-month export pause.

Supply-demand imbalance: Despite the recent price surge due to export curtailments, cobalt's long-term outlook remains precarious. An annual mine supply increase from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to 290,000 metric tons in 2024 represents a substantial oversupply against a backdrop of demand that struggles to keep pace, particularly in light of EV sector saturation.

The current demand for cobalt primarily arises from its critical role in battery production, which accounts for approximately 70% of the market. However, the significant rise in supply has led to a bearish sentiment regarding cobalt prices, with analysts indicating a lack of optimism for pricing recovery in 2025.

Market fluctuation drivers: While the DRC's export suspension provides temporary support for cobalt prices, concerns remain about future demand which could be affected by production limitations from the region. Long-term, the industry faces growing substitution concerns as companies pivot towards cobalt-free alternatives due to ethical and supply chain concerns surrounding cobalt production in the DRC.

Overall market outlook: The cobalt market is facing uncertainty projected to persist into the following years, with production forecasts remaining stable while demand stagnates or transitions towards alternatives. The projected compound annual growth rate of cobalt is expected to lag behind other battery raw materials, suggesting cautious investment considerations moving forward as the EV market evolves.

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